Social Security Revitalization

 

The following is a big deal. At least I think so

 

Recently, I asked for and received a memo from the Social Security Administration's press office that outlines the Bush Administration's view of what would happen if the CAP was removed from Social Security. The memo says, in a nutshell, that even when the cap is removed, Social Security will go bankrupt by 2078. Using SSA's numbers, along with those of the Census Bureau and others, I have put together ACTUAL FIGURES that disprove the SSA's theory.

 

Here is the scenario:

Initially, I called the Trustee's Office where I received some good background information from, among others, the Deputy Chief Actuary, Alice H. Wade, a helpful bureaucrat with a pleasant sense of humor. I asked her for the formulas that were used by the the actuaries to determine the Trustee's Report's numbers. She said she didn't have them but assured me that she would get back to me "today". About an hour later, I received a call from a much more subdued and somber Alice H. Wade. She informed me that I would have to call the Public Affairs Office in order to receive the information I requested.

 

As a member of the "press", I called SSA's Public Affairs Office in Baltimore, MD asking for all pertinent information from their Senior Public Affairs Specialist, Mark Hinkle (410-965-8904). I was directed to the SSA website (www.ssa.gov) where I found, among other things, PDF versions of the Trustee's and PAR Report. I read the summary of ALL REPORTS as well as reading much of each of them.

 

(Click on the following links to download the SSA memo's text, as re-typed by www.nationalview.org along with Proposal1, Proposal2 and a PDF version of the National View's Proposal included in the tables below.)

 

There was something conspicuous by its absence from these two- two-hundred-plus page reports: There was NO MENTION of what would happen if the artificial cap of $87,900 was removed. Not a whisper. Not a peep.

 

I have called Mr. Hinkle's office almost every day since asking for the formulas (I'm beginning to feel like a concerned scientist in search of the elusive formula to a rare disease.). Every day I speak to Kia, a public affairs assistant. We have a nice, little chat. I ask her how she's feeing and she tells me Mr. Hinkle will call me back "after his meeting."

 

It must have been one, long meeting.

 

Here is what I have come up with:

 

For our purposes, the SSA's Proposal 1 and Proposal 2 are interchangeable, so I am using the numbers from Proposal 1

Financial Estimates for OASDI Trust Fund Program Under Proposal 1
Estimate the Contribution and Benefit Base, Effective 2004
Expressed as a percent of taxable payroll   OASDI Taxable Payroll (in billions of dollars)
Year: Cost Rate Rate Balance Trust Fund Ratio 1-1-year   Proposed Plan TAXABLE INCOME (in billions of dollars) Present law TAXABLE INCOME (in billions of dollars) Increase in Taxable Payroll Over Present Law (*)
2003 10.89 12.70 1.81 288   $4,387 $4,387 0.00
2004 9.23 12.65 3.42 309   $5,402 $4,812 17.40
2005 9.04 12.66 3.51 348   $5,711 $4,966 17.40
2006 9.07 12.68 3.59 390   $6,030 $5,140 17.60
2007 9.07 12.67 3.61 431   $6,375 $5,415 17.70
2008 9.12 12.68 3.57 471   $8,717 $5,702 17.80
2009 9.21 12.69 3.48 506   $7,066 $5,994 17.90
2010 9.34 12.71 3.37 543   $7,424 $6,294 18.00
2011 9.49 12.75 3.26 575   $7,793 $6,601 18.10
2012 9.87 12.76 3.09 605   $8,167 $6,911 18.20
2013 9.90 12.78 2.89 630   $8,565 $7,239 18.20
2014 10.14 12.80 2.86 652   $8,954 $7,575 18.20
2015 10.40 12.82 2.42 670   $9,385 $7,923 18.20
2016 10.69 12.84 2.15 684   $9,790 $8,232 18.20
2017 11.00 12.86 1.66 694   $10,233 $8,656 18.20
2018 11.32 12.88 1.58 700   $10,695 $9,045 18.20
2019 11.84 12.90 1.26 705   $11,176 $9,453 18.20
2020 11.96 12.92 0.94 700   $11,677 $9,878 18.20
2021 12.32 12.94 0.62 704   $12,200 $10,318 18.20
2022 12.66 12.97 0.31 701   $12,143 $10,777 18.20
2023 12.96 12.99 0.03 698   $13,309 $11,255 18.20
2024 13.26 13.01 -0.25 693   $13,898 $11,753 18.30
2025 13.54 13.03 -0.52 687   $14,513 $12,272 18.30
2026 13.81 13.04 -0.77 681   $15,158 $12,815 18.30
2027 14.08 13.06 -1.01 973   $15,620 $13,383 18.30
2028 14.33 13.08 -1.24 665   $16,533 $13,978 18.30
2029 14.55 13.10 -1.45 656   $17,271 $14,801 18.30
2030 14.75 13.12 -1.64 648   $18,043 $15,253 18.30
2031 14.93 13.13 -1.80 639   $18,851 $15,935 18.30
2032 15.09 13.15 -1.95 630   $19,096 $16,649 18.30
2033 15.23 13.16 -2.07 622   $20,579 $17,395 18.30
2034 15.34 13.17 -2.18 613   $21,502 $18,174 18.30
2035 15.45 13.18 -2.27 604   $22,465 $18,987 18.30
2036 15.53 13.19 -2.34 596   $23,472 $19,837 18.30
2037