The following is a big deal. At least I think so
Recently, I asked for and received a memo from the Social Security Administration's press office that outlines the Bush Administration's view of what would happen if the CAP was removed from Social Security. The memo says, in a nutshell, that even when the cap is removed, Social Security will go bankrupt by 2078. Using SSA's numbers, along with those of the Census Bureau and others, I have put together ACTUAL FIGURES that disprove the SSA's theory.
Here is the scenario:
Initially, I called the Trustee's Office where I received some good background information from, among others, the Deputy Chief Actuary, Alice H. Wade, a helpful bureaucrat with a pleasant sense of humor. I asked her for the formulas that were used by the the actuaries to determine the Trustee's Report's numbers. She said she didn't have them but assured me that she would get back to me "today". About an hour later, I received a call from a much more subdued and somber Alice H. Wade. She informed me that I would have to call the Public Affairs Office in order to receive the information I requested.
As a member of the "press", I called SSA's Public Affairs Office in Baltimore, MD asking for all pertinent information from their Senior Public Affairs Specialist, Mark Hinkle (410-965-8904). I was directed to the SSA website (www.ssa.gov) where I found, among other things, PDF versions of the Trustee's and PAR Report. I read the summary of ALL REPORTS as well as reading much of each of them.
(Click on the following links to download the SSA memo's text, as re-typed by www.nationalview.org along with Proposal1, Proposal2 and a PDF version of the National View's Proposal included in the tables below.)
There was something conspicuous by its absence from these two- two-hundred-plus page reports: There was NO MENTION of what would happen if the artificial cap of $87,900 was removed. Not a whisper. Not a peep.
I have called Mr. Hinkle's office almost every day since asking for the formulas (I'm beginning to feel like a concerned scientist in search of the elusive formula to a rare disease.). Every day I speak to Kia, a public affairs assistant. We have a nice, little chat. I ask her how she's feeing and she tells me Mr. Hinkle will call me back "after his meeting."
It must have been one, long meeting.
Here is what I have come up with:
For our purposes, the SSA's Proposal 1 and Proposal 2 are interchangeable, so I am using the numbers from Proposal 1
| Financial Estimates for OASDI Trust Fund Program Under Proposal 1 | ||||||||
| Estimate the Contribution and Benefit Base, Effective 2004 | ||||||||
| Expressed as a percent of taxable payroll | OASDI Taxable Payroll (in billions of dollars) | |||||||
| Year: | Cost Rate | Rate | Balance | Trust Fund Ratio 1-1-year | Proposed Plan TAXABLE INCOME (in billions of dollars) | Present law TAXABLE INCOME (in billions of dollars) | Increase in Taxable Payroll Over Present Law (*) | |
| 2003 | 10.89 | 12.70 | 1.81 | 288 | $4,387 | $4,387 | 0.00 | |
| 2004 | 9.23 | 12.65 | 3.42 | 309 | $5,402 | $4,812 | 17.40 | |
| 2005 | 9.04 | 12.66 | 3.51 | 348 | $5,711 | $4,966 | 17.40 | |
| 2006 | 9.07 | 12.68 | 3.59 | 390 | $6,030 | $5,140 | 17.60 | |
| 2007 | 9.07 | 12.67 | 3.61 | 431 | $6,375 | $5,415 | 17.70 | |
| 2008 | 9.12 | 12.68 | 3.57 | 471 | $8,717 | $5,702 | 17.80 | |
| 2009 | 9.21 | 12.69 | 3.48 | 506 | $7,066 | $5,994 | 17.90 | |
| 2010 | 9.34 | 12.71 | 3.37 | 543 | $7,424 | $6,294 | 18.00 | |
| 2011 | 9.49 | 12.75 | 3.26 | 575 | $7,793 | $6,601 | 18.10 | |
| 2012 | 9.87 | 12.76 | 3.09 | 605 | $8,167 | $6,911 | 18.20 | |
| 2013 | 9.90 | 12.78 | 2.89 | 630 | $8,565 | $7,239 | 18.20 | |
| 2014 | 10.14 | 12.80 | 2.86 | 652 | $8,954 | $7,575 | 18.20 | |
| 2015 | 10.40 | 12.82 | 2.42 | 670 | $9,385 | $7,923 | 18.20 | |
| 2016 | 10.69 | 12.84 | 2.15 | 684 | $9,790 | $8,232 | 18.20 | |
| 2017 | 11.00 | 12.86 | 1.66 | 694 | $10,233 | $8,656 | 18.20 | |
| 2018 | 11.32 | 12.88 | 1.58 | 700 | $10,695 | $9,045 | 18.20 | |
| 2019 | 11.84 | 12.90 | 1.26 | 705 | $11,176 | $9,453 | 18.20 | |
| 2020 | 11.96 | 12.92 | 0.94 | 700 | $11,677 | $9,878 | 18.20 | |
| 2021 | 12.32 | 12.94 | 0.62 | 704 | $12,200 | $10,318 | 18.20 | |
| 2022 | 12.66 | 12.97 | 0.31 | 701 | $12,143 | $10,777 | 18.20 | |
| 2023 | 12.96 | 12.99 | 0.03 | 698 | $13,309 | $11,255 | 18.20 | |
| 2024 | 13.26 | 13.01 | -0.25 | 693 | $13,898 | $11,753 | 18.30 | |
| 2025 | 13.54 | 13.03 | -0.52 | 687 | $14,513 | $12,272 | 18.30 | |
| 2026 | 13.81 | 13.04 | -0.77 | 681 | $15,158 | $12,815 | 18.30 | |
| 2027 | 14.08 | 13.06 | -1.01 | 973 | $15,620 | $13,383 | 18.30 | |
| 2028 | 14.33 | 13.08 | -1.24 | 665 | $16,533 | $13,978 | 18.30 | |
| 2029 | 14.55 | 13.10 | -1.45 | 656 | $17,271 | $14,801 | 18.30 | |
| 2030 | 14.75 | 13.12 | -1.64 | 648 | $18,043 | $15,253 | 18.30 | |
| 2031 | 14.93 | 13.13 | -1.80 | 639 | $18,851 | $15,935 | 18.30 | |
| 2032 | 15.09 | 13.15 | -1.95 | 630 | $19,096 | $16,649 | 18.30 | |
| 2033 | 15.23 | 13.16 | -2.07 | 622 | $20,579 | $17,395 | 18.30 | |
| 2034 | 15.34 | 13.17 | -2.18 | 613 | $21,502 | $18,174 | 18.30 | |
| 2035 | 15.45 | 13.18 | -2.27 | 604 | $22,465 | $18,987 | 18.30 | |
| 2036 | 15.53 | 13.19 | -2.34 | 596 | $23,472 | $19,837 | 18.30 | |
| 2037 | ||||||||